We should not be quick to call this the new normal. Normal has always been something of an illusion.

The COVID-19 pandemic has altered the world swiftly and profoundly—and will continue to in the weeks and months ahead—but it is valuable to remember the long view.

The urgent challenge is to solve the medical crisis and the now-unfolding impacts to the economy. But as we start to look forward, we should remember that throughout history, the world has found a way through eras of upheaval and even tragedy. Across time, societies have endured terrible hardships that feel novel each time—and sometimes close to unbearable. And each time our resilience is tested, we’ve struggled toward betterment.

Disruptive and terrible moments like this push leaders to think in new ways, mine new sources of information, and change the way they operate—sometimes fundamentally.

As we consider how the COVID-19 outbreak might shape people, organisations, and companies in the years ahead, a look back might offer insight and hopefulness.

The Impact of Major Events

Following the Great Depression of the 1930s, people shifted toward frugality. Some adjusted in small ways—by reusing aluminium foil or watching their water usage more closely. Many changed larger habits. By 1940, the savings rate, which had been negative, surpassed 15 percent as people protected themselves against the risk of another contraction. Automakers like GM moved aggressively to accommodate the decrease in household spending, ramping up production and marketing of its low-cost Chevrolet brand. That shift helped lead to a time when nearly every family could afford a car. Still, that change didn’t happen en masse—car-buying habits varied across demographic groups and locations.

During World War II, the military appetite for steel and other metals drove manufacturers to embrace alternate materials for consumer goods. That fed a surge in plastics innovation and production which continued for decades, shaping regional manufacturing economies, inspiring new consumer habits, and altering the environment.

Then in fairly quick succession, major events continued to punctuate what might otherwise have been called normal times: the space race, civil rights struggle, Vietnam War, economic globalisation, and internet-based communications changed society and culture dramatically.

Starting in 2007, the Great Recession severely impacted labour dynamics, driving many middle-skilled workers—in manufacturing, administrative, and similar jobs—out of the workforce. Subsequent studies of location data revealed that US counties with higher levels of income inequality were less able to withstand the economic downturn. The fallout from that disparity continues to influence a patchwork of economic conditions and even voting patterns today.

COVID-19’s effects have been widespread, but by no means universal. Different parts of the world have experienced different rates of infection and impact. In the US, New Jersey had more than 64,000 COVID cases as of April 14, while Maine had fewer than 700. Italy had lost 20,000 citizens to the virus, while in Greece, fewer than 100 had died.

In ordinary and extraordinary times, location shapes what people experience and how they view the world. That reality should be embraced by executives and leaders as they create plans for business recovery in the days and weeks ahead.

What Changes Will Come

At the moment, many business leaders are practising what might be called COVID-19 protectionism—ensuring the well-being of employees, idling non-essential production and services, and planning for recovery when conditions allow.

It has been heartening to see so many of them rally around their employees, customers, and front-line workers. This list of companies taking action is welcome evidence of the business community’s commitment to corporate social responsibility, and a reminder of the resilience that often shines during shared hardship.

As we begin, perhaps warily, to map out recovery plans, it is important to recall the major shifts of decades past, to consider how this pandemic may influence habits and views, and to assess where and how businesses will change as a result. Here are a few examples where this dynamic is already playing out:

Commercial Real Estate and Corporate Offices

Millions of professionals are now working from home, and when COVID-19 shelter-in-place orders recede, some percentage of them will likely become permanent or semi-permanent remote workers. For those who return to the corporate office, things may change, too. Cushman & Wakefield, a top corporate real estate firm, has formed a task force to advise clients on how to set up what it calls “the 6-foot office”—a space that encourages social distancing and better protects employee health.

The push toward more careful space planning is likely to change the CRE industry and corporate offices for years to come. HR planners and corporate leaders have already used indoor location technology to map facilities and understand their asset usage. That same tech will play a central role as they reconfigure offices for a post-COVID reality.

Many companies shifted a large percentage of employees to home-office work in just weeks or months to accommodate coronavirus shutdowns. When executives have more time to assess the long-term options for remote work, they’ll rely on new sources of information, including data on which towns or neighbourhoods have reliable access to broadband service. (see the sidebar for more.) With that location intelligence in hand, some executives might seek creative ways to partner with broadband providers to improve access for people on the wrong side of the digital divide.

A Retail Industry in Flux

Effects of the COVID-19 outbreak on the retail sector have been stunning. Shutdown orders have driven some companies toward the brink, while others have benefited from spikes in online shopping or have found creative forms of contactless delivery to keep customers safe.

Business leaders who embrace new customer expectations during the pandemic are likely to retain many of those customers in the long run. As Gartner’s Amie Song told AdWeek recently, Chinese online retailers JD.com and Tmall grew precipitously in the early 2000s after the SARS outbreak scared many shoppers away from stores and onto computers and phones.

Today, eCommerce is ingrained in our shopping patterns, but it still accounted for just 10 percent of US retail sales at the close of 2019. COVID-19 is changing that dynamic, as evidenced by March’s 74 percent year-over-year increase in online sales. Like social distancing in offices, online shopping habits formed during the COVID-19 pandemic may persist well beyond the crisis. Those preferences will differ in each global location, and businesses that use location data to understand them will find ways to cater to evolving tastes.

In a retail climate where fashions change rapidly, calling something the new normal is a misguided approach. Companies that stay nimble and explore emerging sales techniques may manage to make a positive impression on shoppers long after COVID-19 fades.

Manufacturers Locate Weak Spots  

COVID-19 has changed the fortunes of many manufacturers nearly overnight. Late in March, sales of hair clippers rose 166 percent from a year earlier as at-home hair care caught steam. Meanwhile, makers of products as diverse as video game consoles and toilet paper couldn’t keep their offerings in stock at retail outlets. On the flip side, milk producers were dumping excess product as restaurants idled and grocery shoppers opted for less-perishable foods. Automakers reported sharp sales declines, with more likely to come, and some paper mills went on hiatus as shuttered schools and offices undercut demand for paper products.

The pandemic has exposed many truths about manufacturing, but most prominent is the benefit of knowing your supply chain.

When a slowdown or surge like that brought on by COVID-19 hits, manufacturers that use GIS technology know the exposure risk at their tier 2 factories, the status of finished goods in transit, and where demand for products is outside normal levels. Some have built that supply chain awareness over years to cope with natural disasters; more will in the near future.

As they do, they should consider which forms of customer demand will reach beyond the crisis and which may emerge. For instance, following the SARS epidemic of 2003, many Beijing residents bought cars to avoid what they saw as the public health hazards of public transportation. The COVID-19 pandemic could reset transportation attitudes in similar ways. Executives can use GIS to track consumer sentiment in locations worldwide and prepare for consumer changes.

Banks and Financial Services Institutions

Before the COVID-19 outbreak, bank leaders were already becoming savvy students of location information. In the wake of the virus, wise executives will pay greater attention to how location affects their customers.

COVID-19 has exposed glaring inequities across the country and the world. In addition to early indications that the disease disproportionately imperils minority populations, we’re also reminded that many communities lack access to key services, including healthcare, the internet, and banking.

As of early April, the pandemic had produced a 50 percent jump in online banking as home bound citizens turned to mobile devices to manage finances. While some communities have contributed heavily to that surge, others have been left out due to poor digital access, lack of bank accounts, or both.

That may prompt some bank executives to continue rethinking the purpose and format of branches. Consider the innovative Capital One Cafés, designed to resemble coffee shops more than traditional bank branches. Aimed at Millennials who might otherwise shun traditional banking options, the locations debuted in 2017 featuring resources such as community rooms for local nonprofits, free money coaching, and WiFi-equipped meeting spaces.

The COVID-19 experience will likely change banking habits even further. People who had access to mobile services may emerge from the pandemic confident that they can handle finances exclusively online. Others may see ever more clearly the need for in-person options.

Some banks are already experimenting with a middle ground, including the delivery of banking services via customised trucks that visit neighbourhoods on a rotating schedule.

Decisions on whether and where to expand such services will be highly influenced by the needs of individual neighbourhoods, something leading banks have been analysing with GIS technology for years. As pandemic restrictions begin to fade, the demands on banks will continue, but the complexion of their presence in many locations may well change.

Data Analysts Drive Decisions across Commercial Industries

Throughout the COVID-19 crisis, one group of employees has been busy helping executives and colleagues navigate important decisions. Analysts and data scientists have been the news gatherers of this pandemic, using GIS technology to map conditions for many types of business. They’ve used data from inside and outside their companies to deliver intel on the well-being of employees and customers, while making sense of health and business conditions around the world.

At one retailer with a presence in almost every US state, the pandemic immediately raised executives’ interest in smart maps and dashboards. Analysts used GIS technology to map store-level data that had been confined to spreadsheets, creating near real-time maps of store openings, employee availability, and COVID-19 cases in each location’s county.

At a US grocer, the emergency operations centre quickly became the GIS team’s biggest client. Analysts delivered location intelligence on maps and dashboards, creating situational awareness to help executives make key decisions on employee and customer health.

Locating a New Definition of Normal

On the far side of the COVID curve, these teams of location specialists will remain vital, providing insight on how and where businesses can ramp up safely and effectively to meet emerging customer needs.

It may be jarring to think that days of turmoil are closer to normal than we imagine, but it’s also comforting to remember how resilient we can be. And while consumer habits and world views may vary by location, it’s encouraging to know that perseverance is universal.

Additional Resources for COVID-19 Response:

• A podcast on mapping, visualising, and understanding the crisis [listen to the podcast]

• An inventory of some of the ways businesses are protecting employees and customers during the pandemic [read the article]

• A site featuring location technology resources to help with business continuity and recovery [explore the site]

This article was originally published in the global edition of WhereNext.

Use out-of-the-box ArcGIS tools and a little imagination to help you respond to the challenges of COVID-19

Ingenuity is emerging as one of the most powerful tools for combating COVID-19.   

Right across the UK, organisations large and small are thinking laterally and coming up with creative ways to use the resources they already have to help improve the nation’s response to this virulent disease. Whisky manufacturers are repurposing their supplies of alcohol to make hand sanitisers; automotive and aerospace manufacturers are using their production lines to make ventilators; and teachers are using equipment in design technology classrooms to make protective face masks for clinicians.  Who would have thought this was even possible just a few weeks ago? 

The speed at which COVID-19 is spreading throughout communities, countries and continents means that there simply isn’t the time to develop new technologies, specify and procure new materials and learn new skills.  Organisations therefore need to be able to take advantage of what they already have, along with readily accessible, out-of-the-box tools that are easy to use and quick to deploy. 

Esri’s ArcGIS includes a host of easy-to-use, web-based and mobile software tools and bespoke solutions that can be put into action very quickly, straight out-of-the-box, without the need for custom development.  Now free of charge to organisations that want to use ArcGIS software and solutions as part of a COVID-19 response initiative, these highly versatile tools can help organisations address some of the most pressing challenges that this crisis has presented so far.  All organisations need is a little imagination – or ingenuity – to see how they can apply this geospatial analysis and visualisation software to the specific challenges they face.   

Meet the needs of vulnerable people 

Voluntary groups, local authorities and healthcare organisations urgently need to pinpoint the locations of vulnerable people within communities and then match them with the nearest volunteers who are available to help them or support services.  One of the world’s largest humanitarian organisations, American Red Cross, uses ArcGIS to identify the locations of people displaced from their homes following storms and floods, on interactive digital maps.  It can then direct emergency food and medical supplies to the right locations as quickly as possible.  Teams working hard to reduce fatalities from COVID-19 can use ArcGIS in the same way to create an interactive map of vulnerable people and ensure they receive the best possible support to keep them safe.

See the American Red Cross presentation from the Esri UK Annual Conference 2019. 

Improve the effectiveness of volunteers 

Having had an overwhelming response from people who are prepared to volunteer during this crisis, local authorities and charities now need to ensure everyone makes a really effective and valuable contribution.  Much can be learned from the pioneering work of a leading conservation charity, which is currently using ArcGIS mobile solutions in a series of pilot projects to enable its volunteers to submit information to a central portal using their smart phones.  Similar ArcGIS apps can be rolled out very quickly, allowing large numbers of volunteers to share information about the specific needs of the shielded and most vulnerable people privately and securely, as well as collect and submit information to help ensure residents get the right support during isolation.   

Monitor the rapidly evolving situation 

Every day, there are new COVID-19 cases, in different locations, fresh requests for help from the vulnerable and, sadly, additional deaths.  ArcGIS provides a way for people to monitor this rapidly evolving situation on interactive maps, so that health advice, volunteer-led support services and emergency care can be directed to the right places, at the right time. Esri ArcGIS Dashboards, like those currently used by large utility companies to respond to emergency call outs, can be quickly set up, providing local authorities, healthcare trusts and voluntary organisations with a real-time overview of the crisis and the insight they need to make rapid, well-informed decisions. 

With every day that passes, the challenges relating to COVID-19 are multiplying.  The challenges above will not be the only ones that society needs to resolve and no one can truly anticipate what will happen next.  However, ArcGIS has the versatility to help all kinds of voluntary groups, public and private sector organisations, the armed forces and government to gain a better understanding of people at risk, the spread of the disease, the locations of support services and the priority need for resources.  It’s ready to go, straight from the box, and it’s free in this crisis.  So all you need is a little ingenuity to discover how it can help you and others to make the best possible decisions and safeguard lives.   

 To learn more about the resources available to support your response to COVID 19 please visit out website where you can register for free software. https://www.esriuk.com/en-gb/covid-19/overview 

Miles Gabriel - Esri UK

Miles Gabriel is currently leading Esri UK’s COVID-19 Disaster Response Programme. He is a passionate geospatial data specialist who focuses on helping customers realise the benefits that geography and location can bring to all aspects of their business.  

In a time of crisis, accurate data and quick insight are essential for a meaningful business response. As the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) spreads, companies are using location technology to help executives, employees, partners, and customers navigate effectively.

Business leaders are seeking clarity in a situation that changes hourly and varies widely across locations. Geographic information system (GIS) technology is helping them—and their employees and customers—understand the coronavirus reality and make decisions quickly.

COVID-19 Response Tactics

In the private sector, GIS professionals are quickly shifting their focus—from traditional projects like analysing customer demographics and assessing prospective store locations—to creating resource sites and applications that guide people through the COVID-19 outbreak.

This site equips GIS professionals with datasets and resources to build effective dashboards for navigating the pandemic. (Editor’s note: A business-focused version of this resource will go live soon. When it does we will update the links here.)

To manage uncertainty caused by coronavirus, GIS teams are using maps, dashboards, and other tactics to support executives, employees, customers, and the public:

• One global manufacturer created GIS-based dashboards that monitor the status of production facilities, distribution centres, and supply chain partners. This information helps decision-makers maneuver around disruptions and keep critical supplies flowing, much as it has in natural disasters.
• A US-based retailer quickly developed a GIS dashboard to guide its COVID-19 response. The dashboard is powered by a smart map and displayed on big screens in the corporate office, allowing executives to quickly view store openings, virus cases, and employee status. Executives use that insight to adjust resources and policies as circumstances change.
• A global bank is finding new ways to help customers access services. Bank analysts are using GIS to assess customer locations and drive times. With that insight, the website and mobile app can direct customers away from areas with higher COVID-19 incidence and toward services in safer locations.
• One of the largest retailers in the world is quickly building GIS apps for customers, the public, and health officials. These smart maps deliver intuitive views of store openings and closings, testing sites, emergency supplies, and more.
• A mid-sized tech firm with a global services division spun up a mobile app that allows its consultants to share their location and working status, creating a map for executives to see where and how many resources they have available to assist clients.

Other data layers an executive might map include state and local shelter-in-place orders, online sales orders and pickup locations, and optimal delivery routes.

Many of the above companies quickly deployed lightweight mobile apps for global facilities and offices. Regional managers use the apps to note the status of production, employee health, and other important metrics. That data is added in real time or near real time to smart maps at headquarters so the company can communicate status reports to customers and the public.

Finding Reliable Data During the Pandemic

Businesses, health officials, and governments are working together to address the public’s medical and everyday needs. That effort relies heavily on accurate data.

GIS acts as an information hub, connecting organisations to authoritative data sources and helping them make sense of their operations on a map. The Johns Hopkins map of COVID-19 cases, for instance, is built on GIS technology, and has been incorporated into business dashboards to bolster COVID-19 awareness.

GIS technology is also a platform for data sharing. At this GIS resource site (the same site mentioned earlier in this article) companies can connect to authoritative data sources, including:

• Healthcare facility locations
• The location and number of hospital beds
• Current count and location of COVID-19 cases
• Population demographics
• Social vulnerability by location

In addition, companies like Walmart have created public dashboards with information on store openings and closings. A GIS team can add these and other datasets to information sites. With that trusted information situated on a map, employees, customers, and the public can quickly find resources to help them through the crisis.

Most companies already use the GIS technology that powers these maps, apps, and resource sites. By asking GIS professionals to contextualise critical information on COVID-19, business leaders are seeing more clearly during these difficult times.

Additional Resources for COVID-19 Response

How Your GIS Department Can Respond to COVID-19 [via Esri]

Rethinking Business Resilience in the Midst of the Coronavirus Outbreak [via Forbes, Esri]

Supply Chain Recovery in Coronavirus Times [via McKinsey]

COVID-19 Learnings for Consumer Goods [via Cognizant]

9 Maps That Show Which Areas Could Be More Vulnerable to the COVID-19 Pandemic [via Fast Company]

This article was originally published in the global edition of WhereNext.

Business trend prediction can be notoriously difficult, but corporate leaders who pay close attention see signs of what’s to come. Here, we asked thought leaders to weigh in on the future of business and the role location intelligence will play in tomorrow’s shifts, from urbanization to AI-based automation, climate change to customer power.